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Despite First Decline in More Than a Decade for Q1, Gross Output (GO) Might Still Offer Hope for a Robust Recovery in Late 2020

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Washington, DC (Tuesday, July 7, 2020):  On July 6, 2020, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that gross output (GO) – the most comprehensive measure of total spending in the economy, including the supply chain – slowed dramatically in the 1st quarter 2020.

Gross Output declined in the aftermath of current political unrests, as well as negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and government shutdown of the economy in response to the pandemic. However, GO might offer still some promise for a strong recovery, even over the short term. Business spending, which is a better indicator of economic recovery, declined significantly less than consumer spending. This might be an indication that the economy is more fundamentally sound than currently anticipated.

While some of the business spending was to fight the current epidemic, businesses also used a significant portion of that spending to transform and set up their operations for opening after government closing mandates are lifted. If that is correct, the economy might recover quicker than expected. The most recent jobs report also offered an indication that a relatively fast recovery is certainly a strong possibility.

After delivering steady increases over the past 42 consecutive quarters, first quarter 2020 Gross Output declined 4% in real-terms. Last time real GO declined — in the second quarter 2009 — was in the aftermath of the 2008 economic pullback. While still growing, GO had already slowed its growth rate to 1.1% in the fourth quarter 2019 from nearly 2.5% in the previous period.

This growth slowdown in the last period last year, and a decline in the first period 2020 offered a leading indication that the overall economy was already cooling. GO appears to have anticipated the pullback already in the first quarter even before the economy experienced the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and government-mandated shutdowns.

However, while gross output generally declines more than GDP during economic pullbacks, this period’s data presents an anomaly. Despite declining 4% on annualized basis, GO fell less than real GDP, which pulled back 5.1% in the same period.

One reason for this anomaly – and potential s positive sign pointing to a faster-than-expected recovery – is that business spending decreased at a slower rate than consumer spending. Businesses generally anticipate economic contractions and begin spending cuts earlier than consumers. Therefore, Gross Output, which includes business-to business transactions, generally offers earlier signs of pending economic contractions than GDP, which measures only final output.

While consumer spending fell 5.9% in the first quarter 2020, business spending contracted only 5.4%. Despite a relatively small magnitude, this is a significant margin as back-tested date indicates that business spending tends to decline at significantly higher rates than consumer spending during periods of “normal” economic contractions. The margin is even more significant in nominal terms where business spending fell just 4% compared to the 5.7% consumer spending decline. It appears that businesses anticipated the full impact of the COVID-19 epidemic based on just one month of information and adjusted their economic activity by reducing buying activities.

The disruptions in the domestic and global supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as civic unrest in the U.S., have been in the news lately.  GO is the only macro statistic that includes the value of B2B spending and supply chain. “It deserves to be watched closely and updated frequently,” said Dr. Mark Skousen, presidential fellow at Chapman University and a leading advocate of GO as a better, more comprehensive indicator of economic performance.

 

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

The continued business spending decline suggests that the economy began slowing down as a response to early signs that the COVID-19 epidemic’s impact could be significantly more serious than initially anticipated in December 2019. The U.S.–China Phase One trade agreement — signed on January 15, 2020, in Washington D.C. by China’s Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump – went into effect on July 1, 2002.  However, there are accusations from both sides regarding the origin of the COVID-19 virus and new information that suggests Chinese government officials might have been aware that the epidemic began in China much earlier than they disclosed it in December 2019. Therefore this agreement might not have the intended economic impact as originally anticipated. Furthermore, protests and civil unrests in the U.S. create additional headwinds that the economy will have to overcome even after the COVID-19 pandemic is under control.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it did in most of 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.  However, GO has grown at a slower pace than the GDP in the last three quarters, a sign that the economy was slowing down as it entered 2020.

The federal government will release the advance estimate for second-quarter GDP on July 30, 2020 and a full release of second-quarter GO on September 30, 2020.

 

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

In the first quarter 2020, 17 of 22 industry sectors groups contracted to drive the overall GO contraction. The second largest sector – Manufacturing – contracted 7.1% on an annualized basis. This pullback marked a third consecutive contraction after the sector declined 1.2% and 1.5% in the previous two periods of 2019. However, a bigger concern is that manufacturing of Durable goods declined nearly 10%. Durable goods, which include capital expense items by businesses and have bigger impact on long-term economic activity, declined considerably more than Nondurable goods, which contracted just 4.5%, less than half the rate for Durable goods.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing – the largest segment that accounts for nearly one-fifth of total Gross Output – was one of just few bright spots in the first quarter. After expanding 1.3% in Q4 2019, this sector more than doubled its growth to 3.2% in the first quarter 2020. The Finance and insurance sub-segment advanced 3.5% and Real estate rental and leasing still grew at a respectable 3.0%.

After briefly breaking a streak of declining for three consecutive periods in Q4 2019, the Mining sector posted a 42% drop in the first quarter 2020. While an important sector among the leading indicators in the early stages of production, the Mining sector only accounts for approximately 1.3% of the overall GO, which minimizes the impact of the decline on the economy overall.

Similarly to the Mining sector, the Utilities sector delivered a single-period increase in Q4 after two negative periods. However, in Q1 2020, the Utilities sector pulled back more than 21%. The Transportation and warehousing sector also suffered a large decline of nearly 16% after expanding 4.7% in the previous period.

Another positive contributor was the Construction sector. After increasing its expansion rate from 2.5% in Q3 to 4.4% Q4 2020, this sector expanded nearly 14% in the first period 2020.

Several other sectors, such as professional, business, educational, health care and social assistance, contracted between 1% and 5%. Under the lockdown directives, the    Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services sector declined more than 40%.

Another sector that continued its steady expansion was Government spending, albeit at a slightly slower pace. After expanding more than 4% in the last period of 2019, overall government spending rose 1.8% in the first quarter 2020. The main driver was a 3.7% growth of Federal government spending. State and local government spending increased at relatively small 1%.

 

Gross Output

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Until mid-2018, GO outpaced GDP, suggesting a growing economy.  However, since then GO has slowed dramatically, threatening the economic boom.

Consumer Spending Declined Significantly More Than Business Spending in Q1 2020, Which Could Indicate That the Economy Has Solid Fundamentals and is Ready to Bounce Back as Soon as the COVID-19 Pandemic is Under Control and Government Restrictions Mandates Are Lifted

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity contracted 4% in the fourth quarter to $26.3 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending contracted 5.7% on an annualized basis to $14.6 trillion. In real terms, B2B activity decreased at an annualized rate of 5.4% and consumer spending declined 5.9%.

 

Gross Output

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “After slowing its growth in the fourth quarter at the end of 2019, business activity declined 5.4% in real terms during the first-quarter 2020.

After the initial decline in early-2020, the stock market continues to experience volatility. However, since the mid-March lows, the markets have rebounded strongly and recovered most of those losses. The S&P 500 has risen 40% and has already recovered nearly 90% of its losses between the beginning of 2020 and its year-to-date low on March 23.

While lower than in the previous period, total business spending indicates that the overall economy might surge back in the second half of the year. One stumbling block for the economic recovery might be renewed and continued interference by government officials, such as Governor Sisolak’s (D-NV) decision to extend the current shutdown phase through the end of July in Las Vegas, which forced a cancellation of our FreedomFest conference for the first time since it began in 2007. Similar decisions might put additional pressure on businesses across the country and suppress economic recovery deeper into the year.”

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

 

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

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1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2020 1st quarter is $37.8 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to nearly $46.1 trillion in Q1 2020. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8.2 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

Gross Output (GO) Anticipated Slowdown in 2020 – Before the Deluge

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Washington, DC (Monday, April 6, 2020): On April 6, 2020, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that gross output (GO) – the most comprehensive measure of total spending in the economy, including the supply chain – slowed dramatically in the 4th quarter 2019.

The 1.1% real-term growth in the fourth-quarter 2019 was substantially lower than the 2.5% expansion in the previous period, and much slower than 4th quarter real GDP (2.1%).  This growth slowdown at the end of last year indicated that the overall economy was cooling already coming into 2020.

Furthermore, after surging more than 4% in the second quarter and rising 2% in the third-quarter 2019, business-to-business (B2B) in the supply chain declined 1.7% in the last quarter of the year.

It appears that the businesses anticipated the full impact of the COVID-19 epidemic based on just one month of information and adjusted their economic activity by reducing buying activities.

The disruptions in the global supply chain have been in the news lately.  GO is the only macro statistic that includes the value of B2B spending and supply chain.  “It deserves to be watched closely and updated for frequently,” said Dr. Mark Skousen, presidential fellow at Chapman University and a leading advocate of GO as a better, more comprehensive indicator of economic performance.

After growing faster than the GDP in the first three periods of the year, GO growth of 1.1% in real terms underperformed substantially the 2.1% GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter. Total spending on new goods and services (adjusted GO) [1] increased to above $46.45 trillion. While GO still managed to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous period, B2B spending declined 0.8% (-1.7% in real terms). Additionally, consumer spending growth slowed for the second consecutive period 3.2% (1.9% in real terms) for the current period.

 

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

The business spending decline suggests that the economy began slowing down amid early signs that the COVID-19 epidemic might have a bigger impact than initially anticipated in December 2019. China’s Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump signed the U.S.–China Phase One trade agreement on January 15, 2020, in Washington D.C. However, this agreement might not have the intended economic  impact in the midst of accusations from both sides regarding the origin of the COVID-19 virus.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it did in most of 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.  However, GO has grown at a slower pace than the GDP in the last three quarters, a sign that the economy was slowing down as it entered 2020.

The federal government will release the advance estimate for first-quarter GDP on April 29, 2020 and second-quarter GDP on July 30, 2020.  Both are expected to show a sharp drop in GDP growth and another recession.

 

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

The second largest sector – Manufacturing – contracted 1.2% on annualized basis. However, this fourth-quarter contraction was actually lower than the 1.5% pullback in the previous period. However, a concern is that manufacturing of Durable goods declined 3%. Durable goods, which include capital expense items by businesses and have bigger impact on long-term economic activity, declined considerably while Nondurable goods still expanded at 0.8%.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing – the largest segment that accounts for nearly one-fifth of the total gross output – expanded at just 1.3%. The tempered growth rate was driven by a 2.2% contraction in the Finance and insurance subsegment.

After declining for three consecutive periods, the Mining sector reversed trend and delivered a 1.4% expansion in the fourth quarter. While an important sector among the leading indicators in the early stages of production, the Mining sector only accounts for approximately 1.5% of the overall GO, which minimizes the impact of the decline on the economy overall.

Reversing direction after two negative periods with a 2.7% expansion in the third quarter, Utilities expanded again 1.4% in the fourth-quarter 2019. Transportation and warehousing expanded 4.7%. Construction improved its growth rate from 2.5% in Q3 to 4.4% for the last period of the year. Alternatively, Professional and business services, which accounts for more than one tenth of GO, grew only 2.9% in the fourth quarter after surging 6.9% in the preceding period.

Another troublesome indicator is that Government spending increased again after declining briefly in the third quarter. Overall government spending increased 4.1%. Federal spending led with a 4.6% growth over the previous period. State and local government spending increased 3.9%

Gross Output

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP attempts to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Until mid-2018, GO outpaced GDP, suggesting a growing economy.  However, since then GO has slowed dramatically, threatening the economic boom.

 

While Consumer Spending Continued to Advance in Q4, Business Spending (B2B) Began Contracting at The End of 2019 in Anticipation of the Current Economic Downturn.

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity contracted 0.8% in the fourth quarter to $26.6 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14.8 trillion, equivalent to a 3.2% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity decreased at an annualized rate of -1.7% and consumer spending rose at 1.9%.

Gross Output

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “After slowing considerably in the first-quarter 2019, business activity picked up the pace and expanded 1.1% in real terms during each of the two subsequent periods. However, business spending reversed direction and contracted 1.7% in real terms for the last period of 2019. The stock market continued to advance and the overall economy appeared to maintain its upward trajectory in October and November 2019. However, private businesses gleaned enough information from the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in December to reduce their overall buying on concerns that the mild outbreak could turn into a full pandemic. Overall business spending trend continues to be an early indicator that anticipates the direction that the overall economy will take over the subsequent few quarters.”

About GO and B2B Index

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm.

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

 

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2019 3rd quarter is $38 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to more than $46 trillion in Q3 2019. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

U.S. Economy on the GO: Total Spending Accelerates

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Washington, DC (Thursday, January 9, 2020):  On January 9, 2020, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the “top line” measure of total spending at all stages of the economy, known as gross output (GO), for the 3rd quarter 2019.

Real GO rose 2.5%, 25% than the 2.0% growth in the previous period, and faster than real GDP (2.1%).

The latest GO data suggests that the overall economy continues its growth at a slightly faster pace than it did in the first half of 2019. However, after surging more than 4% in the previous period, business-to-business (B2B) in the supply chain advanced just 2% in the third quarter.

After trailing GDP growth for two consecutive periods to begin 2019, GO growth has accelerated toward the end of 2019, and implies continued growth into 2020.  Total spending on new goods and services (adjusted GO) [1] increased to above $46 trillion for the first time.  While GO expanded at a faster pace than in the previous period, B2B spending advanced just 2% (1.3% in real terms), which was only half the growth rate from the previous period. Additionally, consumer spending growth slowed as well from 6.9% (4.4% real) in the second quarter to 4.6% (2.8% real) for the current period. (4.4% in real terms).

 

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumption represents only about one-third of total economic demand.  Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

The renewed increase in business spending suggests that the economy is likely to continue expanding at a moderate pace. Strong corporate earnings, prediction that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rate levels for 2020 and reliable indications that government representatives of China and the United States will sign phase-one trade deal as early as next week might be drivers of the continued business spending.

In addition to an overall GO growth of 2.5%, most of the individual sectors expanded as well. Just like in the previous period, only two sectors contracted in the third quarter. Furthermore, after a 5.4% expansion in the previous period, government spending growth cooled slightly to “only“ 3.5%.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it is now doing, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.

The federal government will release the advance estimate for fourth-quarter GDP on January 30, 2020. If 3rd quarter GO serves as a good forecaster, GDP is likely to grow faster than 2.1%.

 

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

The mining sector declined now for the third consecutive period. Additionally, the pullback of nearly 26% is significantly higher than the 7% contraction in the previous period. Fortunately, while Mining is a very important sector in the early stages of production, the segment only accounts for approximately 1.5% of the overall GO, which minimizes the impact of the decline on the economy overall.

The second sector that contracted in the third quarter was manufacturing. While manufacturing is the second largest sector with a 16% share, the sector contracted just 1.5%. Despite the segments size, the 1.5% contraction had a smaller effect on the overall economy than the Mining sector’s pullback. Some positive news would be that the 1.9% Non-Durable goods contraction represents nearly 60% of manufacturing’s overall decline. Durable goods, which include capital expense items by businesses and have bigger impact on long-term economic activity, declined just 1.2%, which is lower than the 4.2% decline in the previous period and the 11.7% pullback in the first-quarter 2019.

Similarly, utilities continued to move in the positive direction. After contracting 13.6% in the first quarter and 4.2% in the second quarter of the year, utilities expanded 2.7% in the third-quarter 2019. Transportation remained virtually flat compared to previous period.

After pausing growth and remaining flat in the previous period, construction expanded 2.5%.  Professional and business services, which accounts for more than one tenth of GO, delivered annualized growth of 6.9%, which was the highest growth rate of any sector this period. However, while slightly lower at 6.6%, the growth of the finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing sector was a bigger driver of economic expansion on the account of the largest share of the economy at 16%.

Government spending at all levels increased at an annualized rate of 3.45%. The growth was well balanced between the federal level which expanded at 3.41% and the state and local level growth of 3.49%. However, a positive sign is that government expansion overall and at each individual level was lower than in the previous period. In the second quarter overall government grew 5.4%, 4.6% on the federal level and 6.7% locally.

 GO

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Lately, GO has outpaced GDP, suggesting a growing economy.

 

Business Spending (B2B) Continues to Advance at a Slower Pace Than Consumer Spending in both Nominal and Real Terms.

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity expanded just 2% in the third second quarter to $26.4 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14.7 trillion, which is equivalent to a 4.6% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 1.3% and consumer spending rose at 2.8%.

GO“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “After slowing considerably in the fourth-quarter 2018 and first-quarter 2019, business activity picked up the pace in the second quarter and third quarters. While lower than in the previous period, business spending still expanded 2% in the third-quarter 2019, which indicates that the economy might still have enough momentum to maintain a moderate expansion trend, unless prevented by negative developments in trade or monetary policy.”

 

About GO and B2B Index

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm.

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2019 3rd quarter is $38 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to more than $46 trillion in Q3 2019. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

U.S. Enjoys a Modest Recovery – No Recession in Sight!

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Washington, DC (Tuesday, October 29, 2019):

On October 29, 2019, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released gross output (GO) data for the 2nd quarter 2019. The 2.0% real-term growth in the second-quarter 2019 was 25% higher than the 1.6% growth in the previous period.  Adj. GO[1] grew even faster, 2.9% in real terms for the 2nd quarter.

After experiencing a lower growth rate in the first-quarter 2019, adj. GO growth resumed its trend from the prior three periods and advanced 4% in nominal terms and 2.9% in real terms in the second quarter. Interestingly, nominal GDP grew 4.6% in nominal terms in the 2nd quarter.

Total spending on new goods and services (adjusted GO) rose to nearly $45.7 trillion. In line with the GO indications, B2B spending advanced 5.9% (3.8% in real terms) and consumer spending expanded 6.9% (4.4% in real terms).  All second quarter growth rates were substantially higher than growth rates from the previous period, which ranged from 0.5% to 1.5%.

Mark Skousen, a presidential fellow at Chapman University and editor of Forecasts & Strategies, states, “This expansion implies that the economy is currently still recovering modestly without any major recession indicators in sight.  After a flat performance in the first quarter, business-to-business (B2B) in the supply chain advanced nearly 6% in the second quarter. That’s good news.”

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy, bigger than GDP itself. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Recently, Steve Forbes compared GDP to an x-ray of the economy, and GO to a CAT-scan.  See his commentary in the October 31, 2019, issue of Forbes magazine:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2019/10/08/gdp-is-the-wrong-measure-to-truly-gauge-an-economys-health/#4be5ff3c13ce

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

 

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

According to Skousen, the introduction of GO has important implications for the economy and economic policy.  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not represent two-thirds of the economy. GO is a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy.  It turns out that the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

The renewed increase in business spending suggests that the economy might be able to avert a major slowdown and continue expanding at a moderate pace. Strong corporate earnings, interest rate cuts by the Fed, and optimism about resolving the trade conflicts with China might be drivers behind renewed business spending.

In addition to an overall GO expansion of 4.9% (2.9% in real terms), most of the individual industrial sectors grew as well. Unlike the first quarter when five sectors contracted, only two sectors (Mining and Utilities) declined in the second quarter.  Interestingly, government spending growth expanded more than two-fold.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it did in most of 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.  However, GO has grown at a slower pace than the GDP in 2019.

The federal government will release the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP on January 9, 2020.  Brian Moyer, the director of the BEA, expects top-line GO and bottom-line GDP to be released simultaneously in September 2020.

 

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

While the Mining sector declined for the third consecutive period, the 6.8% pullback was significantly lower than the 26% contraction in the previous period. The Utilities sector also delivered a second consecutive pullback. Just like the Mining sector, the 8.9% contraction was lower than the previous period’s pullback of 13.6%. However, these two sectors combine for less than 3% share of total GO. Therefore, while important indicators as early stages of production, the impact on the overall GO is minor.

More importantly, Manufacturing – the second-largest segment with 17% share of Gross Output – remained relatively flat and expanded only 0.5%. While experiencing only minimal growth, the Manufacturing sector still performed significantly better than it did in the previous period when the sector contracted 3.7%.

While lower than the 11.7% pullback in the previous period, Durable goods’ 4.2% decline in the second quarter limited growth of the overall Manufacturing sector despite a 1.5% expansion of non-durable gods. After a 12% growth in the previous period, Construction remined flat in the second quarter.

The Information sector was the fastest growing sector with 8.1%. While growing at a slightly lower rate of 6.8%, the Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing sector contributed the most to GO growth as it is the largest sector with nearly 20% share to total GO. Driven by a 6% expansion of the health care segment, the Educational services, health care, and social assistance sector, which accounts for 8% share of GO, expanded 5.6%.

Unfortunately, the overall expansion of GO brought along an increase in government spending as well. With an 11% share of Gross Output, total government spending increased 5.4%, which is an order of magnitude higher than the growth rate of only 1.5% in the previous period. Generally, state and local government spending tends to grow faster than federal spending. However, in the second-quarter 2019, State and local government spending grew ”only” 4.8% and the Federal government increased its spending by 6.7%. Since early 2016, this has been the second period in a row where federal government grew faster than state and local government spending.

 

Gross output

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Until mid-2018, GO outpaced GDP, suggesting a growing economy.

 

Currently Business Spending (B2B) has Advanced at a Slower Pace Than Consumer Spending in both Nominal and Real Terms.

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity expanded 5.9% in the second quarter to $26.4 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14.5 trillion, which is equivalent to a 6.9% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% and consumer spending rose at 4.4%.

 

Gross output

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “After slowing considerably in the fourth-quarter 2018 and first-quarter 2019, business activity picked up the pace in the second quarter, which indicates that the economy might still have enough momentum to maintain a moderate expansion trend, unless prevented by negative developments in trade or monetary policy.”

 

About GO and B2B Index

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm.

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2019 2nd quarter is $37.7 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to $45.6 trillion in Q2 2019. Thus, the BEA omits $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

Trade War Threatens Recession

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Washington, DC (Monday, July 29, 2019):

On July 19, 2019, the federal government released gross output (GO) for the 1st quarter 2019, and the 1.6% real-term growth — which was 30% lower than the 2.3% advancement from the previous period – strengthened the implication that the economic growth might be slowing.  Business-to-business (B2B) in the supply chain actually declined in the first quarter.

While corporate tax cuts and the elimination of some of the burdensome business regulations undoubtedly had positive effects on economic growth, the effects of tariffs and trade restrictions are significantly higher, as trade plays a much bigger role in the US and world economy. Trade accounts for more than 25% of spending in the US economy and nearly 60% of the global economy.

Whereas GO growth decreased in the first quarter after rising in the tree previous periods, GDP reversed direction after falling for three consecutive quarters and advanced at 3.1%, which was nearly 30% higher than the 2.2% growth rate from the fourth-quarter 2018.  But the decline in the value of the supply chain suggests that the rise in real GDP is temporary.

Total spending on new goods and services (adjusted GO) [1] exceeded $45 trillion by a small margin. In line with the GO indications, B2B spending declined 0.3% (0.4% in real terms) and consumer spending expanded 1.4% (0.5% in real terms), which was lower than the 2.2% consumer spending growth rate from the previous period.

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

The continued slowdown in business spending suggests a potential economic slowdown and the end of the longest bull market since the Great Depression, if business spending growth stalls. However, the trend might still reverse on a potential resolution of the trade conflict as Trump Administration’s delegation is heading to China for the next round of trade negotiations.

Furthermore, the overall economy and markets are waiting in anticipation for the results of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings next Tuesday and Wednesday. The primary interest is whether the Fed will decide to counter its quarter-point hike from December 2018 and revert its target rate back to 2% to 2.25%, or go even further and announce a half-point interest rate reduction to June-2018 levels.

The fears of continued trade war with China has certainly influenced business spending slowdown. However, positive impressions from the upcoming trade negotiations with China and a potential Fed funds rate cut of up to half percent might alleviate some of the reservations, which could result in a renewed push to increase business spending in the second half of the year.

In addition to a lower growth of the overall GO, more sectors experienced a decline – five in the first-quarter 2019 versus only two in the fourth-quarter 2018. However, on the positive side, government spending rose only 1.5% in nominal terms at annual rates, which was the lowest growth rate in the past seven quarters.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it did in most of 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.  However, GO has grown at a slower pace than the GDP in the last two quarters.

The advance estimate of second-quarter GDP was released on July 26, 2019. As implied by the slower GO growth in the first quarter, the second-quarter GDP rose at 2.1% in real terms, which is 32% lower than the 3.1% advancement from the first quarter 2019.

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

After growing at double-digit percentages and nearly doubling over four quarters, the Mining sector pulled back 7.2% in the fourth quarter 2018. Unfortunately, the Mining sector extended its decline and contracted more than 26% on an annualized basis for the first-quarter 2019. The Mining sector comprises only 1.6% of the entire Gross Output and the first-quarter decline has only a small impact on the overall economic output in the current period. However, the Mining sector is one of the early stages of production and often an early indicator of potential economic downturns in the near future.

Similarly, the Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector – another early stage of production sector – also contracted 1.5%. Furthermore, Manufacturing – the second-largest segment with 17% share of Gross Output – declined 3.7%. One promising development within the Manufacturing sector was that production of Durable Goods increased 4%. Non-durable Goods declined 11.7%. Additionally, Transportation & Warehousing — another indicator of economic activity strength — also contracted 5.6%.

Among the expanding sectors, Construction – 4.6% share of GO – advanced at an annualized rate of nearly 12%, Educational services, health care, and social assistance, which accounts for 8.2% share of GO expanded 7.6%. Also, the largest sector that accounts for 19% of GO – Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing – expanded 2.2%.

Total government spending accounted for 10.6% of the total GO spending and increased 1.5% in the first-quarter 2019, which is significantly lower than the 3.5% growth in the previous quarter. This growth rate is the lowest since the second quarter 2017. While federal government increased 2.4%, state and local government expanded only 1.1%, which is less than one-third the 3.5% growth from the previous period. Additionally, the federal government grew more than state and local governments for the first time since the second quarter 2016.

Trade

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Until mid-2018, GO outpaced GDP, suggesting a growing economy.  However, since then GO has slowed dramatically, threatening the economic boom.

Currently Business Spending (B2B) Is Advanced at a Slower Pace Than Consumer Spending in both Nominal and Real Terms.

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity pulled back 0.3% in the first quarter to slightly below $26 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14.24 trillion, which is equivalent to a 1.4% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity declined at an annualized rate of 0.4% and consumer spending rose at 0.5%.

Trade

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “The business activity slowed considerably in the 4th and 1st quarters, although it could be a temporary situation, depending on trade policy.”

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy, bigger than GDP itself. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first new output statistic published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm

With GO and GDP produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic provided technical data for this release.

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2019 1st quarter is slightly above $37.25 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to nearly $45 trillion in Q1 2019. Thus, the BEA omits almost $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

GO Confirms a Slow-Growth Economy as We Enter 2019

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Washington, DC (Friday, April 19, 2019): Today the federal government released gross output (GO) for the 4th quarter 2018, and the increase (2.3% in real terms) confirmed a slow-growth economy as we enter a new year. For the entire year of 2018, real GO grew at 2.91%, slightly faster than 2.86% for real GDP.

That’s an improvement over 2016 (only 1.6% increase in real GDP) and 2017 (2.3% increase in real GDP), but not the 3-4% the Trump supply-side economists had hoped for.

No doubt the corporate tax cuts had a positive effect, but the largest factor inhibiting growth is probably the Trump trade war. Trade plays a much bigger role in the US and world economy; representing over 25% of spending in the US economy. And at the end of last year, world trade slumped, and Chinese exports plummeted.

Last month, the federal government reported that real GDP growth, the “bottom line” of national income accounting, slowed for the second consecutive quarter. After dropping from 4.2% in the second quarter to 3.4% in the third quarter, real GDP only grew 2.2% in the fourth quarter.

Today the federal government (Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US Commerce Department) released 4th quarter estimates of gross output (GO), the “top line” in national income accounting. It measures spending at all stages of production, including the supply chain.

The results were tepid in comparison to the previous four periods. Total spending on new goods and services (adjusted GO) [1] was slightly more than $45.2 trillion in nominal terms.

Real GO advanced at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the 4th quarter – only slightly above the 2.2% real GDP growth. Business-to-business (B2B) spending rose only slightly (0.3%) above third quarter and substantially slower than the 2.2% growth rate of consumer spending in the same period.

 

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, the business sector (B2B spending) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

While the reduced growth of business spending in the fourth quarter suggests economic slowdown, that slowdown was affected by multiple factors. Fears of U.S.-China trade war escalation, as well as uncertainty about the actions of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, drove down the overall markets in late 2018.

These fears and uncertainties undoubtedly influenced the reduction in fourth quarter business spending as well. However, the December announcement that the Fed is not planning additional rate hikes in 2019 and only one hikes in 2020, as well as positive developments in trade negotiations with China, have lessened some of the concerns and the markets have been recovering since the beginning of the year.

While lower than last period, Gross Output growth was broad based across industries. All sectors of the economy – except Mining, and Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services – advanced in the fourth quarter. Government spending rose 3.5% in nominal terms, which was the lowest growth rate in the past six quarters.

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it has been doing in most of 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing.  However, it is clearly growing at a slower pace as we enter 2019.  And GO* is clearly growing far less than GDP in the 4th quarter 2018.

The advance estimate of first-quarter GDP will be released next week, April 26, and is expected to be 2% or less.

 

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

After growing at double-digit percentages and nearly doubling over the previous four quarters, the mining sector pulled back 7.2% in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis. However, the sector comprises less than 2% of the entire Gross Output and the fourth quarter decline has only a small impact.

Similarly, the Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services– the other declining segment – contributed only 4% to the total GO. Therefore, this segment’s 1.6% annualized decline also had minimal impact on the growth of the overall GO.

However, as the second largest segment that accounts for more than 17% of GO, the 1% growth of the manufacturing sector had a much bigger impact on the modest GO growth in the fourth quarter. More importantly, while nondurable goods declined 1.9%, the durable goods subsegment – which is a much better indicators of long-term economic expansion – advanced 3.9%.

The finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector is the largest GO sector with a 19% share of GO. This sector advanced at the same 4.8% rate as it did in the previous period and 26% faster than the 3.8% growth rate from two periods ago.

The fastest growing sectors were utilities, transportation and warehousing. Utilities, which account for just 1.4% of GO, advanced at 12.9% which advanced at 11%. Transportation and warehousing grew at 11%. While growing at a slightly lower rate than utilities, transportation and warehousing – with a 3.4% share — had a bigger positive impact on the growth of the overall GO.

Total government spending accounts for 10.6% of the total GO spending and increased 3.5% in the fourth quarter. However, this growth rate was the lowest since the second quarter of 2017. While federal government increased 3.3%, state and local government expanded a slightly higher rate of 3.5%.

Gross output

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) attempts to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready for use by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Recently quarterly GO has been outpacing GDP, suggesting a growing economy.

 

Business Spending (B2B) Grew Slower Than Consumer Spending First Time Since Second Quarter 2017

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity increased 1.7% in the third quarter to $26.37 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14.2 trillion, which is equivalent to a 3.9% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 0.3% and consumer spending rose at a significantly slower rate of 2.2%.

Gross output

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “The business activity slowed considerably in the 4th quarter, although it’s probably a temporary situation.”

 

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy, bigger than GDP itself. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first new output statistic published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm

With GO and GDP produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2018 4th quarter is slightly above $37.15 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to more than $45.2 trillion in Q4 2018. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

The US Economy is NOT Slowing Down. Business Spending Soars!

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By Mark Skousen

Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

Washington, DC (Thursday, February 21, 2018): “Gross Output provides an important new perspective on the economy and a powerful new set of tools of analysis, one that is closer to the way many businesses see themselves.” –Former BEA director Steve Landefeld

Is the US economic boom coming to an end?

Last month the federal government reported that real GDP growth, the “bottom line” of national income accounting, slowed from 4.2% in the second quarter to 3.4% in the third quarter. Many pundits said that the slowdown will continue and that a recession is inevitable by 2020.

But today’s economic numbers suggest otherwise. Business spending, in particular, is rising at a faster pace.

Today the federal government (Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US Commerce Department) released 3rd quarter estimates of gross output (GO), the “top line” in national income accounting. It measures spending at all stages of production.

The results were eye-popping. Total spending on new goods and services (adj. GO) topped $45 trillion for the first time.

Real GO climbed at an annualized rate of 4.6% in the 3rd quarter, much faster than GDP. Business-to-business (B2B) spending rose even faster, 5.8% in real terms, much more than consumer spending (up 3.2%).

Business — Not Consumers — Drives the Economy

Note:  Contrary to what the media says, consumer spending does not drive the economy, and does not represent two-thirds of the economy. Using GO as a better, more accurate measure of total spending in the economy, business spending (B2B) is almost twice the size as consumer spending. Consumer spending is the effect, not the cause, of prosperity (Say’s law).

There is no slowdown at all in the supply chain and business spending – in fact, they are growing faster.

The growth was broad based. Every sector of the economy in the 3rd quarter grew except utilities and agriculture. Government spending rose 4.4% in real terms. (Does it ever go down?)

Faster GO Means No Recession in Sight for 2019

GO is a leading indicator of what GDP will do in the next quarter and beyond. As David Ranson, chief economist for the private forecasting firm HCWE & Co., states, “Movements in gross output serve as a leading indicator of movements in GDP.”

Whenever GO is growing faster than GDP, as it has been doing in 2018, it’s a positive sign that the economy is still robust and growing. That’s what we are seeing.

Fourth quarter GDP will be released next week, February 28. I expect real GDP to growth faster than 3.4%.

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

The mining sector slowed its growth compared to the previous quarter but was still the fastest growing sector in the third quarter with an annualized growth rate of 22.8%. While business growth in this sector provides a solid foundation for various industries later in the supply chain, the mining castor makes up just 1.8% of the total GO and has a lesser impact on the GO growth compared to some of the larger sectors.

Because the manufacturing sector comprises more than 17% of the total GO, the 9.1% growth rate of this sector has a much greater impact on the growth of the overall GO. Furthermore, within this sector, Durable goods production advanced at nearly 13%, which more than twice the 5.3% growth rate for Nondurable goods.

The Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector is the largest GO sector with a 19% share, this sector advanced at 4.8%, which was more than 26% better than the 3.8% growth rate from the previous period.

Additionally, the Construction sector advanced 7%, Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services sector grew 6.4% and   Educational services, health care, and social assistance sector expanded 8.1%. Another indication that businesses and individuals are spending with a long-term horizon outlook is that Wholesale trade spending growth of 5.2% is substantially higher than the 3.2% expansion of Retail spending.

The only two sectors that retracted in the third quarter were Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, which declined 8.2%, and Utilities with a 6.5% contraction.

Total government spending – 10.6% of the total GO – increase of 4.4% is 10% larger than the 4% growth from the previous quarter. However, the growth was distributed more evenly between the federal government (+4.2%) and State and local government growth (4.5%). While state government expanded just slightly faster than the 4.3% in previous period, the federal government’s spending grew at a pace that its more than 31% faster than its growth the second quarter of 2018.

Business Spending

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Recently quarterly GO has been outpacing GDP, suggesting a growing economy.

Business Spending (B2B) Continues to Grows Faster Than Consumer Spending

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity increased 8.1% in the third quarter to $26.37 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $14 trillion, which is equivalent to a 5% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 5.8% and consumer spending rose at a significantly slower rate of 3.2%.

Business Spending

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “The business activity resumed a strong growth trend after bucking some of the tariff, interest rates, and market correction concerns from the first quarter. Without the reduction in some of those concerns and a strong earnings season, the business community refocused on taking advantage of the tax reform bill in December 2017, and an improved business environment and a reduction in obstructive business regulations.”

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2018 3rd quarter is slightly above $36.8 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to more than $45 trillion in Q3 2018. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8.2 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

Gross Output Indicates Continued Boom in the U.S. Economy as Business Spending Expands Rapidly in Q2

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Washington, DC (Thursday, November 1, 2018):  Gross output (GO), the top line of national accounting that measures spending at all stages of production, continued to build on the growth from the first quarter and advanced at an even faster pace than GDP in the second quarter.

Based on data released on Thursday, November 1, 2018 by the BEA, adjusted GO (GO*)[1] increased in real terms at an annualized rate of 4.6% in the second quarter of 2018. This increase is over 50% higher than the last period’s 2.7% growth rate and substantially higher than the real GDP’s 4.1% growth rate in the second quarter of 2018.

Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, states, “When GO grows faster than GDP, this is a good sign of an expanding economy. Additionally, the data indicates that business investment and spending continued to expand rapidly, probably because of positive corporate earnings reports, the slightly lower concerns regarding tariffs, the new full depreciation rules and the usual weather-related uptick business activity during the spring.”

According to a recent study by David Ranson, chief economist at HCWE & Co., GO anticipates changes in GDP by as much as 12 weeks in advance and thus serves as a reliable leading indicator: http://www.hcwe.com/guest/EW-0118.pdf

The second quarter Skousen B2B Index, a measure of business spending throughout the supply chain, increased at 7.8% in nominal terms, which is significantly higher than the 4.5% growth rate from the previous quarter. After a slowdown in the previous quarter, the growth in the second quarter is the highest strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of 2018, B2B transactions rose at an annual rate of 4.4% in real terms, which is three times higher than the growth rate from the previous quarter, and faster than GDP.  Furthermore, B2B spending increase was 36% higher than the growth of consumer spending in the second quarter.

The nominal adj. GO increased at an outstanding 7.9% in the second quarter of 2018 to reach $44.4 trillion. This current adjusted GO is more than double the size of the current $20.4 trillion GDP figure, which measures final output only. After a lackluster growth in the first quarter, the broader GO* growth rate of 4.6% in real terms indicates a heating up in economic activity expansion again, most likely because of the HUGE wholesale and retail trade increase in the fourth quarter dampened the first quarter results and second quarter performance moved closer to normal levels. “I view the slower growth in GO in the 1st quarter as temporary and the economy is likely to recover in the 2nd quarter,” commented Skousen about the results in the previous quarter. The current quarter’s results indicate that Skousen’s assessment was accurate.

While growth in some industrial sectors was minor, every single sector advanced versus the previous quarter, which drove the growth of GO in the second quarter of 2018. While spending increased at mild rates the previous quarter, the current quarter’s numbers indicate a continuation of robust growth across the economy, and especially in the early stages of production, such as mining and construction. Growth in the early stages is usually a reliable leading economic indicator that overall economic growth should continue to expand.

Gross Output

Report on Various Sectors of the Economy

After a brief slowdown in the previous period, the mining sector’s growth advanced at the highest rate of any sector – 38%.

While the growth of the mining sector is quite robust and a leading indicator, it has a relatively small impact on the growth of the overall GO due to the mining sector’s low share of just 1.7% of total GO. Conversely, the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 17% of the total GO, advanced 7.2%, which was close to last period’s 7.6% growth rate. At 9.2%, the growth rate for Nondurable Goods was significantly higher than the 5.2% growth rate for Durable Goods.

The largest sector – Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing – advanced at 3.8%, which was substantially lower than previous period’s growth rate of nearly 10%.

Additionally, two more segments posted double-digit percentage growth rates for the second quarter. While the Wholesale trade sector increased 10.8%, the Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services sector advanced 12.7%. The growth in this sector was most likely driven by the low unemployment, wage growth and overall economic growth, which provided consumer with additional funds for discretionary spending. These two segments account for a 9% combined share of total GO.

Total government spending (11% share of total GO) increased at 4%, which was higher than the 3.8% from the previous period but still considerably lower than the 6.7% average growth rate over the past two years. Additionally, this two-year average growth rate of total government spending declined for the second consecutive period after rising for five consecutive quarters. State and local government spending increased at 4.3% which was higher than the 3.2% growth of government spending at the federal level.

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Recently quarterly GO and GDP have both been growing at a similar pace.

Business Spending (B2B) Continues to Grows Faster Than Consumer Spending

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity increased 7.8% in the second quarter to $25.85 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $13.8 trillion, which is equivalent to a 5.7% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 4.4% and consumer spending rose at a significantly slower rate of 2.7%.

Gross Output

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “The business activity resumed a strong growth trend after bucking some of the tariff, interest rates, and market correction concerns from the first quarter. Without the reduction in some of those concerns and a strong earnings season, the business community refocused on taking advantage of the tax reform bill in December 2017, and an improved business environment and a reduction in obstructive business regulations.”

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1]  The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2018 2nd quarter is slightly above $36.2 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to more than $44.4 trillion in Q2 2018. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

US Economy Continues to Expand, but Business Spending Slows Temporarily

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Washington, DC (Friday, July 20, 2018):  Gross output (GO), the top line of national accounting that measures spending at all stages of production, continued to expand in the first quarter, but at a slower pace than the previous quarter.

Based on data released on Friday, July 20, 2018 by the BEA, real GO increased at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the first quarter of 2018. This increase lags behind the last period’s 4.3% growth rate, but faster than real GDP, which increased only 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018.

Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, states, “When Gross output grows faster than GDP, this is a good sign of an expanding economy.  However, the latest GO data indicates that business investment and spending grew at a reduced rate in the 1st quarter, probably because of concerns over Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate hikes, uncertainties regarding tariffs and possible trade wars with our trading partners, and the usual weather-related slowdown in business activity during the winter.”

Real GDP, the bottom line of national income accounting, rose at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018. The 2.7% real GO growth rate in Q1 2018 is a good indication that, while growing slower than in the Q4 2017, intermediate business activity is still expanding and should translate into continued GDP growth in the near future.

According to a recent study by David Ranson, chief economist at HCWE & Co., GO anticipates changes in GDP by as much as 12 weeks in advance and thus serves as a reliable leading indicator: http://www.hcwe.com/guest/EW-0118.pdf.

The first quarter Skousen B2B Index, a measure of business spending throughout the supply chain, increased at 4.5% in nominal terms, which is significantly lower than the 12.2% growth rate from the previous quarter. After a spike in the previous quarter, the growth in the first quarter puts the business spending increase at almost the same level it was in the third quarter 2017. In the first quarter of 2018, B2B transactions rose at an annual rate of 1.36% in real terms, which is just a fraction of the 8.5% rate from the previous quarter.

After experiencing its highest quarterly growth rate over the past three years in the fourth quarter of 2017, the nominal adjusted GO (GO*)[1] increased at 4.1% in the first quarter of 2018 to reach $43.1 trillion. This current adjusted GO is more than double the size of the current $20.0 trillion real GDP, which measures final output only. However, the broader GO* growth rate of just 1% in real terms indicates a cooling of in economic activity  expansion – most likely because of the HUGE wholesale and retail trade increase in the fourth quarter.  “I view the slower growth in GO in the 1st quarter as temporary,” commented Skousen.  “The economy is likely to recover in the 2nd quarter.”

All but two industrial sectors increased versus the previous quarter, which drove the growth of GO in the first quarter of 2018. While spending increased at extraordinary rates in the previous quarter, the current quarter’s numbers still indicated a robust growth in the early stages of production, such as mining, manufacturing and construction, which is usually a reliable leading economic indicator that overall economic growth should continue to expand.

Supply Chain Activity Continues to Expand

The mining sector’s growth slowed from 46% in the previous quarter to the current 12.2% rate. While lower than the Q4 2017 rate, the current growth rate is still significantly higher than the 4.7% increase in Q3 2017. However, the growth of the mining sector is still robust, it has a relatively small impact on the growth of the overall GO due to the mining sector’s low share of just 1.5% of total GO. Conversely, the manufacturing sector’s 7.6% spending increase has a much bigger impact since the manufacturing sector accounts for nearly a fifth of total GO (18.2% share). Therefore, the 7.6% current growth of the manufacturing sector, while lower than last period’s 13%, has a much greater positive impact on the total GO and should be an even better indicator of a continued economic expansion. The 5.8% growth rate for durable goods was lower than the growth rate for non-durable goods, which rose 9.5% in the first quarter.

Another sector with an 18% share of GO is the Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing sector. This is one of the few sectors that expanded at a greater rate than in the previous quarter. After increasing its growth rate from 2.8% in Q3 2017 to 6% in the in Q4 2017, this sector expanded at nearly 10% in the first quarter of 2018. Within the overall sector, the Finance and insurance sub-segment rose at 16.4%, which is the highest rate increase of any sector or segment for the current period. Additionally, after rising 6.4% in the previous quarter, the real estate, rental and leasing sub-segment expanded at a slightly lower, but still respectable 5.4%.

Additionally, two more segments posted growth rates in excess of 9% for the first quarter. While the Construction sector increased 9.9%, the transportation and warehousing sector rose 9.1%. These two segments account for a combined GO share of 7.7%.

Only two segments reduced spending from the previous quarter. The Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services sector accounts for just 4% of the total GO and declined almost 3% which is the same decline as in the previous quarter. Additionally, the spending classified as “Other services, except government”, which accounts for 2.2% of GO, declined 2% versus Q4 2017.

Total government spending (11% share of total GO) increased at 3.8%. This rate was significantly lower than the 6.75% two-year average. The two-year average growth rate of total government spending declined for the first time after rising for five consecutive quarters. State and local government spending and Federal government spending rose at nearly identical rates of 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively.

Gross output

Gross output (GO) and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. GO is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i.e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of a financial accounting statement. In April 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (gross profits) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. Recently quarterly GO and GDP have both been growing at a similar pace.

Skousen states, “The GDP growth rate of 2.0% failed to take into account what happened behind the scenes in the supply chain in the 1st quarter.  By focusing solely on final spending and the end of the economic chain, GDP can sometimes be a misleading indicator of economic performance. GO is a much better, more comprehensive view of total economic activity along the entire supply chain.”

Business Spending (B2B) Grows Faster Than Consumer Spending

Our business-to-business (B2B) index is also useful. It measures all the business spending in the supply chain and new private capital investment. Nominal B2B activity increased 4.5% in the first quarter to $24.9 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending rose to $13.8 trillion, which is equivalent to a 3.4% annualized growth rate. In real terms, B2B activity rose at an annualized rate of 1.4% and consumer spending rose 1.2%.

Gross output

 

“B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain,” stated Skousen. “The business activity cooled slightly in the first quarter of 2018 on tariff, interest rates, and market correction concerns, but still grew, partially because the business community saw the passing of the tax reform bill in December 2017 as a sign that President Trump and Congress are serious about living up to their promises that they will improve the business environment through tax cuts, as well as reduction of obstructive business regulation.”

About GO and B2B Index

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out the supply chain and business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “That’s a big part of the economy. GO includes B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is a major achievement in national income accounting. GO is the first output statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was invented in the 1940s.

The BEA now defines GDP in terms of GO. GDP is defined as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy [GO] less the value of the goods and services used up in production (Intermediate Inputs or II].” See definitions at https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm

With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually only about a third of economic activity, not two-thirds that is often reported by the media. As the chart above demonstrates, business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

 

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: BEA – Gross Output by Industry

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at [email protected]

# # #

________________________________________
[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are fabricated and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2018 1st quarter is slightly below $35 trillion. By including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO increases to $43.1 trillion in Q1 2018. Thus, the BEA omits more than $8 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO, which we call Adjusted GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

GO Slow: New Leading Indicator Predicted Slowdown in GDP

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by Mark Skousen
Presidential Fellow, Chapman University
Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

For the previous two quarters (Q2 and Q3, 2017) Gross Output, the new broader measure of the economy that includes the supply chain, was growing at a slower rate than GDP.  According to my research, that suggested a slowdown in GDP.

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the advance estimate for Q4 2014 GDP.  After two consecutive quarters (Q2 & Q3) of 3%-plus growth in real terms, the GDP grew only 2.6% in Q4 — just as GO predicted.

For some time now, I’ve been arguing that gross output (GO), the top line in national income accounting, is a more accurate measure of total economic activity.  Because it includes business-to-business (B2B) transactions in the earlier stages of production, GO can anticipate changes in GDP (the bottom line) as much as 12 weeks in advance.

Since the first quarter of 2017, GO has been growing at slower rate than GDP.  In Q2, real GO rose at a tepid 1.7%, substantially less than 3.1% for GDP, and in Q3 2017, real GO accelerated at 2.7% growth rate, but still less than the 3.1% real GDP growth for the 3rd quarter.  I concluded in November, “Second quarter GO suggests potential slowdown in the economy, despite the currently rising GDP.”  Please reference the 2017 Q2 and 2017 Q3 press releases for more information.

The following chart provided by David Ranson, chief economist at HCWE & Co., shows the relationship between GO, II and GDP since the third quarter of 2016.

GO

Data: Quarterly seasonally-adjusted chain-type quantity indices of intermediate inputs, gross output and gross domestic product (Bureau of Economic Analysis).

 

As David Ranson comments:  “In this chart we compare the growth of gross output (GO) and intermediate output (II) with the growth of GDP over the past year (all in real terms). The chart begins with the third quarter of 2016 because, prior to that, all three variables were moving in close parallel. At that point a substantial divergence opened up, as the growth of intermediate output (and GO) raced ahead of GDP growth. That implied an acceleration in GDP growth which we have been experiencing. Now, just-released third-quarter figures for GO and II suggest that a re-convergence has begun: in the second and third quarters of 2017 growth in GO and II has fallen below the growth rate of GDP. That implies that GDP will stabilize and possibly decelerate later in 2018.”

 

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Way to Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM

Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/

Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/

Steve Hanke, Globe Asia (July 2014): “GO: J. M. Keynes Versus J.-B. Say,” http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/go-jm-keynes-versus-j-b-say

David Ranson, “Output growth data that the economy generates months earlier than GDP,” Economic Watch, July 24, 2017. HCWE, Inc. http://www.hcwe.com/guest/EW-0717.pdf

Mark Skousen, “Linking Austrian Economics to Keynesian Economics,” Journal of Private Enterprise, Winter, 2015:  http://journal.apee.org/index.php?title=Parte7_Journal_of_Private_Enterprise_vol_30_no_4.pdf

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations at skousenp[email protected]