Mark Skousen, Author at MSKOUSEN.COM

Just Released – Fourth Edition of “The Maxims of Wall Street”

September 28, 2015 By Mark Skousen Leave a Comment

As J. Paul Getty, America’s first oil billionaire, said, “Sound stocks purchased when their stocks are low and held for the long pull are very likely to produce high profits through dividends and increases in value.”

That quotation and 800 others are included in my classic collection, “The Maxims of Wall Street.” I took some copies with me on my recent Politics & Your Portfolio cruise to New England, and one attendee, John O’Brien of Florida, bought a copy and read it on the ship. He came up to me and said, “There’s more education in this book than with four years of college!”

Mark Skousen looks on as subscriber John O’Brien of Florida reads “The Maxims of Wall Street” on the deck of Eagle’s/FreedomFest’s Crystal Symphony cruise (New England/Canada).

“There’s more educational value in Maxims than with four years of college today,” he said.

New Fourth Edition Arrives on Thursday — at Half Price!

I’m happy to announce that we have sold out of the third edition, and I’ve gone back to press with the new fourth edition. The new edition will arrive on Thursday! It mentions more than a dozen new quotations and authors, such as this one: “The stock market takes the stairs up and the elevator down.” So true!

For 30 years, I’ve been painstakingly collecting all the wise old adages, proverbs, humor and legends on Wall Street, based on in-depth interviews with old timers, reading rare financial books and my own experiences of more than 40 years in the financial markets. They include famous lines from Warren Buffett (“If you wait to see the Robin sing, Spring may be over”)… J. P. Morgan (“Troubled waters make for good fishing”)… Richard Russell (“In a bear market, the winner is he who loses the least”)… and Steve Forbes (“Everybody is a disciplined, long-term investor until the market goes down”).

I divide the book into various categories: beating the market, diversification vs. concentration, value vs. growth, bulls vs. bears, black swan events… doomsayers and cassandras… hot tips and inside information… chartists vs. fundamentalists… taxes and tax havens… inspiring “pearls of wisdom” and even a few short stories.

The book has been endorsed by Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle, Dennis Gartman, Alex Green, Richard Band and Bert Dohmen. “Maxims” is nearly 300 pages long. The retail price on Amazon is $24.95, but my followers pay only $20 for the first copy, and all additional copies are only $10 each. All are personally autographed and mailed to you for free (I pay the postage). For all foreign orders outside of the United States, add $10 per book.

I’m offering this “half-off” deal because I know “Maxims” makes a great gift for friends, relatives, business colleagues, investors, your favorite stockbroker and money manager. Many people order a whole box (32 copies). The price of a box of books is only $300 postpaid, less than $10 each. As Hetty Green, the first female millionaire, said, “When I see something cheap, I buy a lot of it!” To order your copies at this super discount, call Ensign Publishing toll-free at 1-866-254-2057 or go to www.miracleofamerica.com/maxims.

Announcing the New Third Edition of “The Structure of Production”

September 28, 2015 By Mark Skousen 3 Comments

Federal Government Introduces a New Macro Statistic: A Triumph in Supply-side “Austrian” Economics and Say’s Law

Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production. New York University Press. Third revised edition, 2015, 402 pages. $26 paperback. Available on Kindle.

To buy the book: NYU, Amazon
Quarterly data for Gross Output can be found at the BEA site here.
For Skousen’s latest quarterly report on GO, see this.

From the cover:

In 2014, the U. S. government adopted a new quarterly statistic called gross output (GO), the most significance advance in national income accounting since gross domestic product (GDP) was developed in the 1940s. The announcement comes as a triumph for Mark Skousen, who advocated GO twenty-five years ago as an essential macroeconomic tool and a better way to measure the economy and the business cycle. Now it has become an official statistic issued quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U. S. Department of Commerce.

Quarterly data for Gross Output can be found at the BEA site here.

For Skousen’s latest quarterly report on GO, see this.

Since the announcement, Gross Output has been the subject of editorials in the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other financial publications, analyzed in the Eastern Economic Journal, and is now being included in leading economics textbooks, such as Roger Leroy Miller’s new 18th edition of Economics Today. Economists are now producing GO data for other countries, including the UK and Argentina.

In this third printing of Structure of Production, Skousen shows why GO is a more accurate and comprehensive measure of the economy because it includes business-to-business (B2B) transactions that move the supply chain along to final use. (GDP measures the value of finished goods and services only, and omits most B2B activity.) GO is an attempt to measure spending at all stages of production.

As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in “A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts,” “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen states, “Gross Output fills in a big piece of the macroeconomic puzzle. It establishes the proper balance between production and consumption, between the ‘make’ and the ‘use’ economy, between aggregate supply and aggregate demand. I make the case that GO and GDP complement each other as macroeconomic tools and that both should play a vital role in national accounting statistics, much like top line and bottom line accounting are employed to providing a complete picture of quarterly earnings reports of publicly-traded companies.”

He concludes, “Because GO attempts to measure all stages of production (known as Hayek’s triangle), it is a monumental triumph in supply-side ‘Austrian’ economics and Say’s law.”

Using GO, Skousen demonstrates that consumer spending does not account for two-thirds of the economy, as is often reported in the financial media, but is really only 30-40% of total economic activity. Business spending (B2B) is over 50% of the economy, and thus is far larger and more important than consumer spending, more consistent with economic growth theory, and a better measure of the business cycle. (See chart below.)

About the Author

MARK SKOUSEN is a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University in California. He has taught economics and finance at Columbia Business School, and is a former economic analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency. He received his Ph. D. in economics at George Washington University (1977). He is the editor-in-chief of the investment newsletter Forecasts & Strategies, and author of several books, including The Making of Modern Economics.

Reviews

“Now, it’s official. With Gross Output (GO), the U.S. government will provide official data on the supply side of the economy and its structure. How did this counter revolution come about? There have been many counter revolutionaries, but one stands out: Mark Skousen of Chapman University. Skousen’s book The Structure of Production, which was first published in 1990, backed his advocacy with heavy artillery. Indeed, it is Skousen who is, in part, responsible for the government’s move to provide a clearer, more comprehensive picture of the economy, with GO.” — Steve H. Hanke, Johns Hopkins University (2014)

“The development of Gross Output is a good idea and a better measure [of economic activity] than GDP.” — David Colander, Eastern Economic Journal (2014)

“This is a great leap forward in national accounting. Gross Output, long advocated by Mark Skousen, will have a profound and manifestly positive impact on economic policy.” –Steve Forbes, Forbes magazine (2014)

“Skousen’s Structure of Production should be a required text at our leading universities.” (referring to second edition) –John O. Whitney, Emeritus Professor in Management Practice, Columbia University

“Monumental. I’ve read it twice!” (referring to first edition, published in 1990) — Peter F. Drucker, Clermont Graduate University

“I am enormously impressed with the care and integrity which Skousen has accomplished his work.” — Israel Kirzner, New York University

For Interviews or Lectures

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen or arrange a lecture, contact him at [email protected], or Valerie Durham, Media Relations, 410-570-0535, or email her at [email protected]

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My Review of Jeremy Siegel’s classic “Stocks for the Long Run”

August 9, 2015 By Mark Skousen 1 Comment

Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, by Jeremy J. Siegel.

Reviewed by Mark Skousen

In mid-February 2009, Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel showed me his 200-year chart of the US stock market, and noted that every time the market fell 50% from its high, the market bottomed. The only exception: the 1929-33 Great Depression, when stocks plunged over 80%. Siegel thought that, due to Federal Reserve intervention, we would not see another Great Depression. He therefore concluded that we were close to the bottom of the bear market, and that stocks were a “screaming buy.”

Since that encounter, I have joined with those who call Jeremy Siegel the “Wizard of Wharton.” His forecast came within weeks of the bottom, all based on historical work that is clearly set forth in Stocks for the Long Run, now in its fifth edition. If there is indeed a “definitive” book on the stock market, then look no further than this one.

This magnum opus is replete with chapters on the history of Wall Street since 1802; the pros and cons of mutual funds, ETFs, futures, and options; the causes of bull and bear markets; the influence of monetary and fiscal policy on equity prices; the outlook for stocks, bonds and commodities in the face of inflation and an entitlement crisis; analysis of stock indexes, dividend yields, and price-earnings ratios; global equity markets, technical analysis, and potential ways to beat the market.

This fifth edition adds chapters on what we’ve learned from the 2008 financial crisis and behavioral finance, including insights into the stock market crash on October 19, 1987, and the “flash crash” on May 6, 2010. The overriding theme is that history matters, not only for policy makers in Washington, but for investors making the right kind of investment choices.

While there is much that echoes what we think we all know, it does not hurt get these things confirmed by a scholar of Siegel’s reputation. Most mutual fund managers fail to beat the market; dividend-reinvestment is good; compounded interest and dollar-cost averaging are winning strategies for individuals; and for most people, long-term investing beats short-term speculating.

Siegel’s research also leads to conclusions that often go contrary to conventional wisdom. For example, he shows that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks. Investing in the latest hot technology stock is what Siegel calls the “growth trap.” His classic example is Big Oil vs Big Blue: Standard Oil, now ExxonMobil (ticker: XOM) vs, IBM (ticker: IBM).

Based on Siegel’s study of the two stocks from 1950 to 2012, IBM outdistanced Exxon in every growth category–sales, earnings, dividends, and cash flow. Big Blue’s earnings exceeded Big Oil’s by more than 3 percentage points per year. IBM was the classic growth stock, Exxon the classic value play.

Yet the oil giant proved to be the better stock to buy. “When your lockbox was opened 62 years later,” reports Siegel, “the $1000 you invested in the oil giant would be worth $1,620,000, more than twice as much as IBM.”

How come? “Valuation,” the author explains. “The price investors paid for IBM was just too high.” The lower price of the oil stock helped harness the power of dividend reinvestment. “Because Standard Oil’s price was low and its dividend yield much higher than that of IBM,” Siegel carefully notes, “those who bought its stock and reinvested the oil company’s dividends accumulated 12.7 times the number of shares they started out with, while investors in IBM accumulated only 3.3 times their original shares.” While taxes on dividends would have put a serious crimp in this record, it would have worked in the era of tax-sheltered IRA’s and 401-k’s.

The growth trap is also in evident in the selection process of the S&P 500. After tracking down the performance of the original 500 companies in the S&P index, the author finds that the original S&P 500 firms outperformed the dynamic updated index. Why? Because the new “growth” firms had already risen sharply before they were added, and the old firms had fallen sharply before they were dropped.

Siegel has this same theory to the global markets, and discovered that stock performance and economic growth often move in opposite directions. “The fastest-growing country by far, China, has had the worst returns,” he writes. “Mexico, Brazil and Argentina are among the slowest-growing countries but have generated excellent returns for investors.” Although I’m not sure about Argentina–its bolsa was either in crisis or illiquidity during large parts of the 20^th century—the general point is well-taken.

The author challenges the efficient market proponents with anomalies in the marketplace, such as the January and September effects, the small stock effect, and momentum investing. He devotes a chapter to the challenges of beating the indexes, concluding that a few strategies seem to work, such as fundamental-weighted indexes and rising dividend stocks.

Siegel offers a mixed review of technical analysis. For example, he notes that investors and money managers who used the much- touted 200-day moving average technique avoided most of the 2007-09 bear market, but paid the price when they were whipsawed in and out of the market 20 times in 2010-12

One complaint: In the chapter on derivatives, the author does not take Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch to task for calling for the outlawing of stock futures and options. Studies show that the futures and options markets have actually reduced volatility and increased liquidity on Wall Street, and serve as a useful tool to hedge positions in the marketplace.

Stocks for the Long Run challenges the dooms-sayers who predict another stock market crash and collapse in the economy. “No one,” Jeremy Siegel declares, “has made money in the long run from betting against stocks or the future growth of our economy.”

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Mark Skousen is editor of Forecasts & Strategies, a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, and author and compiler of The Maxims of Wall Street: A Compendium of Financial Adages, Ancient Proverbs, and World Wisdom.

Recession Ahead? First Quarter Gross Output and Business to Business Data for 2015

July 24, 2015 By Mark Skousen 12 Comments

FIRST QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B DATA: RECESSION AHEAD?

Washington, DC (Thursday, July 23, 2015): Gross Output, a broader measure of U. S. economic activity published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, continued to slow into the 1st quarter of 2015, confirming tepid growth in the economy and a potential recession. According to today’s BEA release, real GO advanced at an annualized rate of only 0.7% to $31.0 trillion by the first quarter of 2015, compared to 5.2% in the 3rd quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The downward trend in the economy continues. In nominal terms, GO actually fell 1.1% but price deflation was so strong that GO increased in real terms.

Gross Output (GO) is a measure of sales or receipts of all industries throughout the production process, including business to business transactions (B2B). Most B2B activity is left out of GDP statistics.

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO has risen faster than GDP, and that continued to be the case in the 1st quarter 2015. Real GO rose slightly compared to a small loss in real GDP in the 1st quarter. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of final goods and services only, fell 0.2% in real terms to $17.7 trillion in the fourth quarter. The fact that GO is still growing faster than GDP suggests that the economic recovery is still in place, but only marginally.

Business Spending (B2B) Slows

B2B activity actually declined significantly in the first quarter. According to the new Skousen B2B Index, business spending fell 2.8% to $22.7 billion in nominal terms compared to the 4th quarter. (No B2B price deflator is available at this time, but real B2B is likely to be down slightly for the 1st quarter.) Meanwhile, consumer spending remained stable. See the chart below.

“The GO data and my own B2B Index demonstrate that total US economic activity has slowed significantly, and dangerously close to going into another recession,” stated Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. “B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain, and it indicates continued weakness.”

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out a big part of the economy, business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes.

“GO includes most B2B activity that is vital to the production process.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990, new third edition forthcoming in August, 2015). Now the BEA publishes GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data, the first aggregate statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was introduced in the 1940s.

“By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually less than 40% of economic activity, not the 70% figure that is reported by the media.”

According to the Skousen B2B (business to business) Index, total business spending throughout the production process fell slightly to $22.7 trillion in the 1st quarter 2015, compared to personal consumption expenditures of $12.1 trillion (no change from the previous quarter). “Thus, we see that business spending is almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy,” concludes Skousen.

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

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For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under

“Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly:

http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step= 51&isuri=1&5114=q&5102=15

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM

Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/

Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/

Steve Hanke, Globe Asia (July 2014): “GO: J. M. Keynes Versus J.-B. Say,” http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/go-jm-keynes-versus-j-b-say

For more information on Dr. Mark Skousen, visit: www.mskousen.com/online-press-kit

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Valerie Durham, Media Relations, 410-570-0535, or email her at [email protected].

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—

Valerie Durham

Media Relations

Skousen Publishing, Inc.

www.mskousen.com

[email protected]

New Gross Output and B2B Data Confirm Economic Slowdown, But No Recession

May 5, 2015 By Mark Skousen Leave a Comment

Washington, DC (Thursday, April 23, 2015): Gross Output, a broader measure of U. S. economic activity published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, grew much more slowly in the 4th quarter of 2014, confirming a slowdown in the economy into 2015. According to today’s BEA release, real GO advanced at an annualized rate of only 2.6% to $31.4 trillion by the end of 2014, half the rate of the 5.2% jump in the 3rd quarter.

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO has risen faster than GDP, and that continued to be the case in the 4th quarter. GO advanced at a slightly faster pace than GDP. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of final goods and services only, rose 2.2% in real terms to $17.7 trillion in the fourth quarter. The fact that GO is still growing faster than GDP suggests that the economic recovery is still in place, and a recession is unlikely.

Business Spending (B2B) Slows

B2B activity also continued to slow into 2015. According to the new Skousen B2B Index, business spending increased at a lower annualized rate (2.5%) compared to the 3rd quarter. See the chart below.

“The GO data and my own B2B Index demonstrate that total US economic activity has slowed significantly, but not enough to cause an actual recession,” stated Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. “B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990, new third edition forthcoming in July, 2015). Now the BEA publishes GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data, the first aggregate statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was introduced in the 1940s.

“Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually less than 40% of economic activity, not the 70% figure that is reported by the media.”

According to the Skousen B2B (business to business) Index, total business spending throughout the production process reached $23.0 trillion in the 4th quarter 2014, compared to personal consumption expenditures of $12.1 trillion. “Thus, we see that business spending is almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy,” concludes Skousen.

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=51&isuri=1&5114=q&5102=15

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM

Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/

Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/

Steve Hanke, Globe Asia (July 2014): “GO: J. M. Keynes Versus J.-B. Say,” http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/go-jm-keynes-versus-j-b-say

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at [email protected], or Valerie Durham, Media Relations, email her at [email protected].

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U. S. Economic Activity Advances 5.2% in 3rd Quarter 2014

January 22, 2015 By Mark Skousen 1 Comment

Washington, DC (Thursday, January 22, 2015): Gross Output, a broader measure of U. S. economic activity published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, advanced to nearly $31.3 trillion in the third quarter of 2014, a 5.2% jump in real terms (annualized). The GO data released by the BEA can be found at http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=51&isuri=1&5114=q&5102=15

Gross Output (GO) is a measure of sales or receipts of all industries throughout the production process, including business to business transactions.

As has been the case throughout 2014, GO advanced faster than GDP. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of final goods and services only, rose 5.0% in real terms to $17.6 trillion in the third quarter.

“The GO data demonstrates that the economy is still accelerating,” stated Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out a big part of the economy, business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “GO includes most B to B activity that is vital to the production process.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990, new third edition forthcoming in 2015). Now the BEA publishes GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data, the first aggregate statistic to be published on a quarterly basis since GDP was introduced in the 1940s.

According to the Skousen B-to-B Index, total business spending throughout the supply chain reached $23.0 trillion in the 3^rd quarter 2014, compared to personal consumption expenditures of $12 trillion. “Thus, we see that business spending is almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy,” concludes Skousen.

Skousen also notes that during downturns GO tends to fall faster than GDP, while during expansions GO rises faster than GDP.

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

For More Information

For more information on Gross Output (GO), B to B activity, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Way to Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM

Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/

Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact Valerie Durham, Media Relations, [email protected].

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Young Economist Duplicates My 4-Stage Model in his Business Card!

December 15, 2014 By Mark Skousen 2 Comments

Last week I met Cesar Daniel Pailacura, a young economist in Argentina, at the Austrian economics conference last week in Rosario. If you look closely, you will see that his business card is a duplicate of my four stage model of the economy taken from “The Structure of Production”.

As you can see, each stage of his business card adds value: The first stage of his business card is his Facebook page; the second stage is his personal email address; the third stage has his telephone number; and the final stage is his full name (meeting in person).

Clever!

Professional Journal Publishes First Academic Article on Gross Output

December 15, 2014 By Mark Skousen Leave a Comment

“For forecasting, the new measure [Gross Output] may be more helpful than the GDP measure, because it provides information of goods in process.” — David Colander (Middlebury College)

I am happy to announce that the first professional economics journal (Eastern Economic Journal) has published an article on Gross Output, the new macro statistic I’ve been advocating and now has been adopted by the federal government.

GO is an attempt to measure spending at all stages of production, the first statistic to be adopted since GDP was invented in the 1940s. It is a way of measuring Hayek’s triangle, and I’ve found that the quarterly GO statistic a better, broader measure of the economy and a good predictor of final output (GDP). In 2014, it has been rising faster than GDP, suggesting that the earlier stages of production are robust and predicting more growth ahead.

I consider the government publishing of a quarterly GO the greatest triumph in supply-side Austrian macroeconomics since Hayek won the Nobel prize 40 years ago.

The commentary is by the respected economist David Colander (Middlebury College), who, despite the headline, is largely positive about GO. You can read his article here: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eej/journal/v40/n4/full/eej201439a.html

And my response here: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eej/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/eej201465a.html

Austrian economists are now seeking to measure GO (or my own broader Gross Domestic Expenditures) in other countries, such as UK and Argentina.

Econologically yours, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

US Economic Activity Jumps Sharply in Q2

November 14, 2014 By Mark Skousen Leave a Comment

For Immediate Release
Contact: Valerie Durham, [email protected]

U. S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY JUMPS SHARPLY IN 2^ND QUARTER 2014

Washington, DC (Friday, November 14, 2014): Gross Output, a broader measure of U. S. economic activity published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, advanced to nearly $30.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2014, a 4.8% jump in real terms (annualized). The GO data released by the BEA can be found at http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=51&isuri=1&5114=q&5102=15

Gross Output (GO) is a measure of sales or receipts of all industries throughout the production process, including business to business transactions.

GO advanced slightly faster than GDP. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of final goods and services only, rose 4.6% in real terms to $17,328.2 billion in the second quarter.

“The GO data demonstrates that the economy recovered sharply from the slowdown in the first quarter,” stated Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies, who champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. He first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). Now the BEA publishes GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data. [Read more…]

Maxims of Wall Street

October 30, 2014 By Mark Skousen 2 Comments

Maxims of Wall Street: A Compilation of Financial Adages, Ancient Proverbs, and Worldly Wisdom is a classic reference to read with delight for years to come, and an ideal gift to investors, stockbrokers and money managers. More than 800 pithy and insightful adages, inspirational short stories, famous quotes, and sage advice from Wall Street gurus, money managers, financial advisers, writers, philosophers and many others.

Buy the first copy for $20 and all additional copies for only $10, and I pay the U.S. postage. Also: If you order an entire box (32), you pay only $300 postpaid. (For orders sent outside the United States, add $5 per book for S&H)

To order, call Eagle Publishing at 1-800/211-7661 or email [email protected]. Mention priority code MAXIMS to buy individual books and MARKR to buy a box of 32 books.

Note: I autograph all copies if you order through Eagle Publishing. Click here to read more about Maxims of Wall Street.