SECOND QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B INDEX: US ECONOMY MUCH STRONGER THAN GDP INDICATES

Washington, DC (Thursday, November 5, 2015):  Gross output (GO), a broader measure of U. S. economic activity published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, accelerated in the 2nd quarter of 2015, indicating a more robust economy than GDP data reports.

Based on data released today by the BEA and adjusted to include all sales throughout the production process, real GO grew by 4.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2015, considerably more than the 3.9% annualized growth rate of real GDP.[1]   Adjusted GO reached $39.0 trillion in the 2nd quarter, more than double the size of GDP ($17.9 trillion).

In nominal terms, adjusted GO growth rate went from -2.5% in Q1 to 6.3% in Q2. In the same period GDP went from 0.8% to 6.0%, illustrating the higher degree of volatility of GO compared to GDP (see chart below).  The higher volatility indicates that GO might be a better indicator of economic activity than GDP, since GO includes economic activity that GDP leaves out.

GO_2015_q2_a_changeHowever, early-stage activity continued to show weakness in the 2nd quarter: Mining activity fell 26% and utilities declined 16%. However, most other sectors grew, led by construction, which was up 24%. Wholesale and retail sales also rose sharply, probably benefiting from lower fuel prices. Overall, price inflation remained tepid, rising only 1.4%.

GO and GDP are complementary statistics in national income accounting. Gross output (GO) is an attempt to measure the “make” economy; i. e., total economic activity at all stages of production, similar to the “top line” (revenues/sales) of an accounting statement. In April, 2014, the BEA began to measure GO on a quarterly basis along with GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an attempt to measure the “use” economy, i.e., the value of finished goods and services ready to be used by consumers, business and government. GDP is similar to the “bottom line” (earnings) of an accounting statement, which determined the “value added” or the value of final use.

GO tends to be more sensitive to the business cycle, and more volatile, than GDP. During the financial crisis of 2008-09, GO fell much faster than GDP, and afterwards, recovered more quickly than GDP. Still, it wasn’t until late 2013 that GO fully recovered from its peak in 2007. The fact that the adjusted GO is still growing slightly faster than GDP suggests that the economic recovery is on-going.

Business Spending (B2B) Rises Only 1%

We have also created a new B2B Index based on GO data. B2B activity rose only 1% in the second quarter. According to the new Skousen B2B Index, business spending rose to $22.7 trillion in nominal terms compared to the 1st quarter of $22.4 trillion. Meanwhile, consumer spending remained stable.

GO2015q2b“The GO data and my own B2B Index demonstrate that total US economic activity has picked up, and a recession has been avoided for now,” stated Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies and a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. “B2B spending is in fact a pretty good indicator of where the economy is headed, since it measures spending in the entire supply chain, and it indicates continued growth.”

Skousen champions Gross Output as a more comprehensive measure of economic activity. “GDP leaves out a big part of the economy, business to business transactions in the production of intermediate inputs,” he notes. “GO includes most B2B activity that is vital to the production process. No one should ignore what is going on in the supply chain of the economy.”

Skousen first introduced Gross Output as a macroeconomic tool in his work The Structure of Production (New York University Press, 1990). A new third edition was just published in late 2015, and is now available on Amazon.

Click here: Structure of Production on Amazon

The BEA’s decision in 2014 to publish GO on a quarterly basis in its “GDP by Industry” data is an important achievement in national income accounting. With GO and GDP being produced on a timely basis, the federal government now offers a complete system of accounts. As Dale Jorgenson, Steve Landefeld, and William Nordhaus conclude in their book, A New Architecture for the U. S. National Accounts, “Gross output [GO] is the natural measure of the production sector, while net output [GDP] is appropriate as a measure of welfare. Both are required in a complete system of accounts.”

Skousen adds, “Gross Output and GDP are complementary aspects of the economy, but GO does a better job of measuring total economic activity and the business cycle, and demonstrates that business spending is more significant than consumer spending,” he says. “By using GO data, we see that consumer spending is actually less than 40% of economic activity, not the 70% figure that is reported by the media. Business spending is in fact almost twice the size of consumer spending in the US economy.”

Note: Ned Piplovic assisted in providing technical data for this release.

For More Information

The GO data released by the BEA can be found at www.bea.gov under “Quarterly GDP by Industry.” Click on interactive tables “GDP by Industry” and go to “Gross Output by Industry.” Or go to this link directly: http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=3&isuri=1&5102=15

For more information on Gross Output (GO), the Skousen B2B Index, and their relationship to GDP, see the following:

Mark Skousen, “At Last, a Better Way to Economic Measure” lead editorial, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2014: http://on.wsj.com/PsdoLM

Steve Forbes, Forbes Magazine (April 14, 2014): “New, Revolutionary Way To Measure The Economy Is Coming — Believe Me, This Is A Big Deal”:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/03/26/this-may-save-the-economoy-from-keynesians-and-spend-happy-pols/

Mark Skousen, Forbes Magazine (December 16, 2013): “Beyond GDP: Get Ready For A New Way To Measure The Economy”:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/29/beyond-gdp-get-ready-for-a-new-way-to-measure-the-economy/

Steve Hanke, Globe Asia (July 2014): “GO: J. M. Keynes Versus J.-B. Say,” http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/go-jm-keynes-versus-j-b-say

To interview Dr. Mark Skousen on this press release, contact him at mskousen@chapman.edu, or Ned Piplovic, Media Relations, 1-201-788-6623, or email him at skousenpub@gmail.com.

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[1] The BEA currently uses a limited measure of total sales of goods and services in the production process. Once products are transformed and packaged at the manufacturing stage, the BEA’s GO only adds “net” sales at the wholesale and retail level. Its official GO for the 2015 2nd quarter is $31.4 trillion. But by including gross sales at the wholesale and retail level, the adjusted GO is $38.9 trillion. Thus, the BEA omits over $7 trillion in business-to-business (B2B) transactions in its GO statistics. We include them as a legitimate economic activity that should be accounted for in GO. See the new introduction to Mark Skousen, The Structure of Production, 3rd ed. (New York University Press, 2015), pp. xv-xvi.

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