• Home
  • About Mark Skousen
    • Catalog
    • Mark Skousen Biography
    • Commonly Asked Questions
    • Jo Ann Skousen Biography
    • Mark Skousen’s Family and Famous Relatives
    • Books Recommended by Mark Skousen
    • Personal and Miscellaneous
  • Books
    • Economics Books
      • Economic Logic
      • EconoPower: How a New Generation of Economists Is Transforming the World
      • The Big Three in Economics: Adam Smith, Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes
      • The Making of Modern Economics
      • The Structure of Production
      • Vienna & Chicago, Friends or Foes?
    • Finance and Investing Books
      • Maxims of Wall Street
      • A Viennese Waltz Down Wall Street: Austrian Economics for Investors
      • Investing In One Lesson
      • High Finance on a Low Budget
      • The New Scrooge Investing
  • Interviews
  • Appearances
  • Online Press Kit
    • Contact Information
    • Biographical Information
    • Headshots
    • List of Current Books
    • Forecasts & Strategies, Trading Services and Weekly Blog
  • FreedomFest
  • Persuasion vs. Force

MSKOUSEN.COM

Mark Skousen's Personal Website for the Best of Money & Economics

  • News
  • Economics
  • Personal Finance
  • Investing & Markets
  • Forecasts & Strategies
  • Politics & Liberty

A Golden Comeback, Part I

September 29, 1998 By Mark Skousen Leave a Comment

Economics on Trial THE FREEMAN SEPTEMBER 1998

by Mark Skousen

“A more timeless measure is needed; gold fits the bill perfectly.”
–MARK MOBIUS

When speaking of the Midas metal, I’m reminded of Mark Twain’s refrain, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.” After years of central-bank selling and a bear market in precious metals, the Financial Times recently declared the “Death of Gold.” But is it dead?

Following the Asian financial crisis last year, Mark Mobius, the famed Templeton manager of emerging markets, advocated the creation of a new regional currency, the asian, convertible to gold, including the issuance of Asian gold coins. “All their M1 money supply and foreign reserves would be converted into asians at the current price of gold. Henceforth asians would be issued only upon deposits of gold or foreign-currency equivalents of gold.” Mobius castigated the central banks of Southeast Asia for recklessly depreciating their currencies. As a result, “many businesses and banks throughout the region have become bankrupt, billions of dollars have been lost, and economic development has been threatened.” Why gold? “Because gold has always been a store of value in Asia and is respected as the last resort in times of crisis. Asia’s history is strewn with fallen currencies. … The beauty of gold is that it limits a country’s ability to spend to the amount it can earn in addition to its gold holdings.”

Not Just Another Commodity

Recent studies give support to Mobius’s new monetary proposal. According to these studies, gold has three unique features: First, gold provides a stable numeraire for the world’s monetary system, one that closely matches the “monetarist rule.” Second, gold has had an amazing capacity to maintain its purchasing power throughout history, what the late Roy Jastram called “The Golden Constant.” And third, the yellow metal has a curious ability to predict future inflation and interest rates.

Let’s start with gold as a stable monetary system. With most commodities, such as wheat or oil, the “carryover” stocks vary significantly with annual production. Not so with gold. Historical data confirm that the aggregate gold stockpile held by individuals and central banks always increases and never declines.2 Moreover, the annual increase in the world gold stock typically varies between 1.5 and 3 percent, and seldom exceeds 3 percent. In short, the gradual increase in the stock of gold closely resembles the “monetary rule” cherished by Milton Friedman and the monetarists, where the money stock rises at a steady rate (see Chart I).

Compare the stability of the gold supply with the annual changes in the paper money supply held by central banks. As Chart II indicates, the G-7 money-supply index rose as much as 17 percent in the early 1970s and as little as 3 percent in the 1990s. (Why has monetary growth slowed even under a fiat money standard? The financial markets, especially the bondholders, have demanded fiscal restraint of their governments.) Moreover, the central banks’ monetary policies were far more volatile than the gold supply. On a worldwide basis, gold proved to be more stable and less inflationary than a fiat money system.

Critics agree that gold is inherently a “hard” currency, but complain that new gold production can’t keep up with economic growth. In other words, gold is too much of a hard currency. As noted the world gold stock rises at a miserly annual growth rate of less than 3 percent and oftentimes under 2 percent, while 70% GDP growth usually exceeds 3 or 4 percent and sometimes 7 or 8 percent in developing nations. The result? Price deflation is inevitable under a pure gold standard. My response: Critics are right that gold-supply growth is not likely to keep up with real GDP growth. Only during major gold discoveries, such as in California and Australia in the 1850s or South Africa in the 1890s, did world gold supplies grow faster than 4 percent a year.3

Prices Must Be Flexible

Consequently, an economy working under a pure gold standard will suffer gradual deflation; the price level will probably decline 1 to 3 percent a year, depending on gold production and economic growth. But price deflation isn’t such a bad thing as long as it is gradual and not excessive. There have been periods of strong economic growth accompanying a general price deflation, such as the 1890s, 1920s, and 1950s. But price and wage flexibility is essential to make it work.

Next month. Update on Jastram’s study The Golden Constant, and gold’s amazing ability to maintain its purchasing power over the past 400 years.

1. Mark Mobius, “Asia Needs a Single Currency,” Wall Street Journal, February 19, 1998,p. A22.
2. See the chart on page 84 of my Economics of a Pure Gold Standard, 3rd ed. (1997), available from FEE. Note how the world monetary stock of gold never has declined between 1810 and 1933.
3. Ibid., p X6.


Filed Under: Articles, Ideas on Liberty and The Freeman, Investing Articles, Investments & Markets

About Mark Skousen

Mark Skousen is a professional economist, university professor, best-selling author, editor of the award-winning Forecasts & Strategies financial newsletter, and producer of FreedomFest, the largest annual gathering of free minds about liberty and freedom in the world. Skousen has been married to wife Jo Ann for 42 years, and has five children and five grandchildren.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Mark Skousen

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter

Mark Skousen’s Top Ten

Top Ten

Recent Posts

Gross Output

Supply Chain Business Still Growing: Recession Fears May Not Pass GO

Washington, DC (Thursday, September 29, 2022): Today, the federal government … [Read More...]

Are economists the slowest learners?

Dear friends of freedom, Peter Drucker once said, "Economists are the slowest … [Read More...]

FreedomFest Agenda – Here’s a preview:

Dear friends of FreedomFest, The excitement is building for our July 13-16 … [Read More...]

Making of Modern Economics

Richard Rahn Reviews “The Making of Modern Economics” by Mark Skousen

Richard W. Rahn — economist, syndicated columnist and entrepreneur — reviewed … [Read More...]

Making of Modern Economics

“The Making of Modern Economics” – The book the New Socialists fear the most

Good news! The brand-new fourth edition of “The Making of Modern Economics” has … [Read More...]

Franklin

Why Ben Franklin Matters

Today is the 316th anniversary of the birth of founding father extraordinaire … [Read More...]

Economy

Economy Slows, But the Outlook is Still Positive

Washington, DC (Wednesday, December 22, 2021): Today, the federal government … [Read More...]

Samuelson vs Friedman, Match of the Century

By: Mark Skousen First published in the March 1999 issue of Liberty … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Despite Higher Inflation, the U.S. Economy Continues to Boom: Gross Output (GO) Hits $50 Trillion!

Washington, DC (Thursday, September 30, 2021): For the first time in history, … [Read More...]

Are we Rome?

Are We Rome?

By Mark Skousen Talk delivered on Saturday, September 11, 2021, Kimber … [Read More...]

Economy

While Inflation Threatens, the U.S. Economy is Firing on All Cylinders

  Washington, DC (Thursday, June 24, 2021): On June 24, 2021, the federal Bureau … [Read More...]

FreedomFest

Fun Things to Do at FreedomFest This July

We already have more than 2,000 registered attendees for FreedomFest next month. … [Read More...]

Walter Lippmann

Where’s Walter Lippmann when we need him?

Columnist and author Walter Lippmann (1889-1974) was considered the most … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Gross Output (GO) Growth Outpaces GDP Again to Suggest Robust Recovery

Washington, DC (Thursday, March 25, 2021): On March 25, 2021, the federal Bureau … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Business-to-Business (B2B) Spending Grows Faster Than GDP!

Washington, DC (Tuesday, December 22, 2020): On December 22, 2020, the federal … [Read More...]

Maxims

Ideal Holiday Gift! New 10th Anniversary Release of “The Maxims of Wall Street”

Dear friends, A hundred years ago, in 1920, the great author and poet Rudyard … [Read More...]

Ezra Taft Benson

Ezra Taft Benson’s Remarks at FEE Headquarters in New York, May 1977

In 2001-02, I served as president of the Foundation for Economic Education … [Read More...]

Ezra Taft Benson in Russia

Elder Ezra Taft Benson Speaks in Communist Russia

    “It was the most heart-rending and most inspiring scene … [Read More...]

lessons

10 LESSONS FOR 10-10-2020

This article was originally published on the FreedomFest Forum on October 10, … [Read More...]

GO-Day Celebration

Dear friends, Good news!  For the first time, the federal government (BEA) … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Macroeconomics on the GO: How Wall Street Economic Analysts Use Gross Output (GO)

Here are two examples of how private economic research firms are using gross … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Despite First Decline in More Than a Decade for Q1, Gross Output (GO) Might Still Offer Hope for a Robust Recovery in Late 2020

Washington, DC (Tuesday, July 7, 2020):  On July 6, 2020, the federal Bureau of … [Read More...]

FreedomFest

My Schedule at FreedomFest 2020

by Mark Skousen Editor, Forecasts & Strategies   Dear … [Read More...]

Forecasts & Strategies

40 Year of Forecasts & Strategies

Dear friends, My publisher, Salem Eagle, has just posted my special 40th … [Read More...]

GO

U.S. Economy on the GO: Total Spending Accelerates

Washington, DC (Thursday, January 9, 2020):  On January 9, 2020, the Bureau of … [Read More...]

MODERN MONETARY THEORY

THERE’S MUCH RUIN IN A NATION: MODERN MONETARY THEORY

By Mark Skousen Chapman University [email protected] “Today, as in the … [Read More...]

Forbes

Steve Forbes on the GO: I Make the Forbes 400 Richest Issue!

I’m mentioned on page 22 for my gross output (GO) model. (Sorry, I may be worth … [Read More...]

MY INTELLECTUAL ANCESTORS

BY MARK SKOUSEN Presidential Fellow, Chapman University "If I have seen a … [Read More...]

Trade

Trade War Threatens Recession

Washington, DC (Monday, July 29, 2019): On July 19, 2019, the federal … [Read More...]

FreedomFest

MY SCHEDULE AT FREEDOMFEST 2019

by Mark Skousen Editor, Forecasts & Strategies   Dear FreedomFest … [Read More...]

Austrian

AUSTRIAN VS. CHICAGO ECONOMISTS: RESPONSE TO THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS

By Mark Skousen Updated in 2019  “Blessed paper credit! Last and best … [Read More...]

Gross Output

GO Confirms a Slow-Growth Economy as We Enter 2019

Washington, DC (Friday, April 19, 2019): Today the federal government released … [Read More...]

Gross Output

The US Economy is NOT Slowing Down. Business Spending Soars!

By Mark Skousen Editor, Forecasts & Strategies Washington, DC (Thursday, … [Read More...]

Making of Modern Economics

The Economist Publishes New Ad for “Making of Modern Economics”

The November 24th issue of The Economist, page 73, is running a new full-page … [Read More...]

Gross Output

Gross Output Indicates Continued Boom in the U.S. Economy as Business Spending Expands Rapidly in Q2

Washington, DC (Thursday, November 1, 2018):  Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

Adam Smith

ADAM SMITH AND THE MAKING OF MODERN ECONOMICS

By Mark Skousen Presidential Fellow, Chapman … [Read More...]

Gross output

US Economy Continues to Expand, but Business Spending Slows Temporarily

Washington, DC (Friday, July 20, 2018):  Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

Steve Forbes

Full Remarks by Steve Forbes On the Presentation of a Triple Crown in Economics to Mark Skousen

The following are Mr. Forbes remarks following Skousen’s session on “Adam Smith, … [Read More...]

Steve Forbes

STEVE FORBES AWARDS MARK SKOUSEN A TRIPLE CROWN IN ECONOMICS

For Immediate Release July 18, 2018 Washington, DC:  Steve Forbes, chairman … [Read More...]

Mark Skousen’s article on Revista Procesos de Mercado (Review of Market Processes)

Revista Procesos de Mercado (Review of Market Processes) has just published Mark … [Read More...]

If GDP Lags, Watch the Economy GO

‘Gross output’ reflects the full value of the supply chain, and it portends much … [Read More...]

Away We GO: Business Spending Accelerates in 4th quarter 2017

Washington, DC (Thursday, April 19, 2018) Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

GO

GO Slow: New Leading Indicator Predicted Slowdown in GDP

by Mark Skousen Presidential Fellow, Chapman University Editor, Forecasts … [Read More...]

gross output

THIRD QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B SPENDING GAIN MOMENTUM

Washington, DC (Friday, January 19, 2018): Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

2ND QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT SHOWS SURPRISE SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMY

Washington, DC (Thursday, November 2, 2017): Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

Economic Logic

ANNOUNCING A NEW EDITION BREAKTHROUGH COURSE IN FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM

“Mark Skousen is America’s leading economic author because he roots his luminous … [Read More...]

Gross Output

RAPID GROWTH IN 1ST QUARTER GO: ECONOMY IS NOT SLOWING DOWN

By: MARK SKOUSEN Washington, DC (Wednesday, July 26, 2017): Gross output … [Read More...]

GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B INDEX ADVANCE SHARPLY AFTER ELECTION

Washington, DC (Friday, April 21, 2017): Gross output (GO), the top line of … [Read More...]

SECOND QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B INDEX INCREASE, STILL NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.

By Mark Skousen Washington, DC (Thursday, November 3, 2016):  Gross output, … [Read More...]

FIRST QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B INDEX POINT TO NEGLIGIBLE GROWTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY

Washington, DC (Thursday, July 21, 2016):  U. S. economic activity is still … [Read More...]

HOW BEN FRANKLIN SAVED THE POST OFFICE AND HELPED UNIFY AMERICA

By Mark Skousen Special to the Franklin Prosperity Report July 4, … [Read More...]

FreedomFest Fun Activities

In addition to all the great debates, presentation and hundreds of vendors in … [Read More...]

Big news: the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has changed its definition of GDP that starts with Gross Output.

This is a significant breakthrough, which I have encouraged them to do for some … [Read More...]

FOURTH QUARTER GROSS OUTPUT AND B2B INDEX POINT TO BUSINESS RECESSION

By Mark Skousen April 21, 2016 Washington, DC (Thursday, April 21, 2016):  … [Read More...]

CATO INSTITUTE POLICY FORUM: “GO Beyond GDP: What Really Drives the Economy?”

We hear constantly that consumer spending is 70% of GDP and that consumer … [Read More...]

ANNOUNCING THE NEW THIRD EDITION OF “THE MAKING OF MODERN ECONOMICS” BY MARK SKOUSEN

March 9, 2016: Today marks the 240th anniversary of the publication of “The … [Read More...]

Announcing the New Third Edition of “The Structure of Production”

Federal Government Introduces a New Macro Statistic: A Triumph in Supply-side … [Read More...]

My Friendly Fights with Dr. Friedman

The Rational, The Relentless - Liberty Magazine - September 2007 by Mark … [Read More...]

The Making of Modern Economics

Recent Comments

  • Missy on Gary North, R. I. P.
  • Valerie on 10 LESSONS FOR 10-10-2020
  • Arch G. Woodside on The Other Austrian
  • Troy Lynch on Gary North, R. I. P.
  • Wayne Flanagan on Ideal Holiday Gift! New 10th Anniversary Release of “The Maxims of Wall Street”

Contact Mark Skousen

Personal Email

Forecasts & Strategies Email

FreedomFest Email

Social Media:
Facebook
LinkedIn
Twitter

Websites:
mskousen.com
markskousen.com
freedomfest.com

Mark Skousen Newsletters

 Mark Skousen Investment Newsletters

Since 1980, Skousen has been editor in chief of Forecasts & Strategies, a popular award-winning investment newsletter. He also is editor of three trading services, Skousen Private Equity Trader; Skousen High-Income Alert and Fast Money Alert.

Jo Ann Skousen’s Odds & Trends

Jo Ann Skousen

Movie reviews, theater reviews, and commentaries by Jo Ann Skousen, author, editor, professor and Mark's wife of 41 years. She is the Festival Director for the Anthem Libertarian Film Festival and the entertainment editor for Liberty Magazine.

Mark Skousen’s Investor’s CAFE

Mark Skousen Investors CAFE

Skousen Investor CAFÉ is a weekly electronic newsletter written by Dr. Mark Skousen. Mark offers commentary on the markets, the economy, politics and other topics of interest and what they mean to individual investors. Sign up for FREE here.

FreedomFest Conference


FreedomFest is an annual festival in Las Vegas where free minds meet to celebrate “great books, great ideas, and great thinkers” in an open-minded society. It is independent, non-partisan, and not affiliated with any organization or think tank.

Anthem Film Festival

Anthem Libertarian Film Festival

Anthem is the only film festival in the country devoted to promoting libertarian ideals. Anthem shows films and documentaries that celebrate self-reliance, innovation, commerce, individual rights, and the power of persuasion over force. We are looking for the year's best films about personal and civil liberty.

Copyright © 2023 · Mark Skousen · Log in

✖

Cancel reply

Cancel